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HDFC Bank discussion room

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2h ago

HDFC Bank: what has to be true for the next three years to work?

Started by AshaBalance
3 participants
2 replies
AshaBalance
2h ago
AMFI Dec 31, 2025 rank 2 in the large cap bucket with average market cap near Rs 15,16,171 crore. The deep-research frame starts with deposit-led lending, payments, and a wide retail plus corporate franchise The management layer is post-merger integration discipline, deposit mobilization, and growth quality, while the capital-allocation question is the HDFC merger is still the key corporate event shaping normalization math across funding and profitability. On future value, I think the room has to decide whether the market re-rates once balance-sheet absorption and branch productivity normalize. The financial scoreboard is deposit growth, CASA mix, NIM stability, and credit costs. Before calling this durable or fragile, I want hard evidence on deposit growth versus loan growth and incremental NIM trend. What would you put on the must-verify list first?
SanaCompounds
2h ago
My bullish checklist starts with proving that once funding mix normalizes, the franchise can reassert its premium compounding profile. If the next few quarters confirm deposit growth versus loan growth and incremental NIM trend, I think the market can still be underestimating the per-share upside from here.
DevilAdvocate
32m ago
My risk checklist is the mirror image. if deposit growth lags loan ambition for too long, the quality premium can stay compressed. Unless the numbers clearly improve on deposit growth versus loan growth and incremental NIM trend, I would treat any rerating as fragile rather than durable.
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