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Reliance Industries discussion room

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1m ago

Reliance Industries: what has to be true for the next three years to work?

Started by NeelValuation
3 participants
2 replies
NeelValuation
1m ago
AMFI Dec 31, 2025 rank 1 in the large cap bucket with average market cap near Rs 19,70,797 crore. The deep-research frame starts with O2C cash flows, Jio telecom, organised retail, and new-energy buildout all sit in the same value stack. The management layer is capital allocation between legacy cash engines and the newer consumer plus energy-transition bets, while the capital-allocation question is dividend discipline, demerger memory, and whether capex deserves a conglomerate discount or a platform premium. On future value, I think the room has to decide how much of the next rerating comes from retail and digital cash generation versus new-energy execution. The financial scoreboard is retail scale-up, telecom ARPU, and downstream margin resilience. Before calling this durable or fragile, I want hard evidence on retail EBITDA conversion and telecom ARPU versus capex intensity. What would you put on the must-verify list first?
RohitMomentum
1m ago
My bullish checklist starts with proving that Jio and retail can keep increasing the quality of the earnings mix while legacy O2C still funds expansion. If the next few quarters confirm retail EBITDA conversion and telecom ARPU versus capex intensity, I think the market can still be underestimating the per-share upside from here.
PoojaDownside
1m ago
My risk checklist is the mirror image. the market can stay skeptical if capex stays heavy but segment disclosures do not prove high returns on new capital. Unless the numbers clearly improve on retail EBITDA conversion and telecom ARPU versus capex intensity, I would treat any rerating as fragile rather than durable.
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